Premier League Opening Fixtures and Predictions

I’m not normally one for predicting games (mainly for fear of being completely off the mark, probably), but for this season’s starting fixtures I thought I’d give it a bit of a go.

Just a quick warning: it’s unlikely that the current transfer news will be the same by the start of the season. I’m only judging by what I currently know now!

Saturday 18^th August 2012
15:00

Arsenal v Sunderland

                If they retain RVP this season, then Arsenal could be scoring goals galore with the recent additions of Lukas Podolski and Oliver Giroud. Even without the Dutchman, the Gunners have some strong forwards that could really help the team. Another striker, Nicklas Bendtner, is now back from his loan at Sunderland. His future at Arsenal has been uncertain, and despite saying he would never play for Arsenal again he showed up to pre-season training. Although not a consistent player, the Dane can often prove valuable. He showed relatively good form in Denmark’s Euro 2012 campaign, so it’s possible that Bendtner could up his game this season.

                So far, Sunderland seem to be having a complete clear out. Only a defender, in the form of ex-Villa player Carlos Cuellar, has been signed. However, four of the five players that have been transferred elsewhere were out on loan last season, meaning the loss of these players shouldn’t make too much of a difference to Sunderland’s form, compared to last season.

Prediction: Arsenal to win.

Fulham v Norwich City

                This could be a close match. The signing of Mladen Petric could help Fulham out, but the loss of former captain Danny Murphy and the possible loss of Clint Dempsey could balance this out. Norwich have signed two players and sold two. Personally I don’t think there will be much of a difference for Norwich with these changes.

Prediction: Draw or Fulham to win.

Queens Park Rangers v Swansea City

               There’s been lots of signings and very few losses for QPR so far. Joey Barton’s ban/loan to Fleetwood Town could affect the play, but this is unlikely (apart from there being a lot less drama). In comparison, there hasn’t been much change at all for Swansea, although Sigurdsson’s loan spell has ended and he’s moved to Tottenham. Former manager Brendan Rodgers has left for Liverpool, with Danish legend Michael Laudrup replacing him. His impact is yet to be seen, but I have a feeling he’ll do well with the club.

Prediction: Draw or Swansea to win.

Reading v Stoke City

                Newly promoted Reading have bought a lot of players into their team, and sold none. The addition of Pavel Pogrebnyak to the team could be a useful one. In contrast, Stoke haven’t signed anyone. Two players have been sold, one of which was out on loan last season. There are plenty of rumours about striker Michael Owen signing for the team, but nothing definite has been said yet.

Prediction: Draw

West Bromwich Albion v Liverpool

                The signing of Ben Foster is definitely an important one for West Brom. But can they retain their place in the top half of the table? As an Albion supporter, I can safely say that gaining 10^th place is definitely seen as an achievement for us. There’s a lot of uncertainty for this season though, considering the loss of Roy Hodgson. The Baggies will be the first team to be managed by Steve Clarke, so only time will tell what his potential as a manager is.

                As for Liverpool, 2011/12 wasn’t the best season for them, although that could have been due to ‘managerial problems’. The signing of Borini could prove useful for the team; while on loan to Roma, he scored 9 times in 24 matches.

Prediction: As much as I hate to say it, Liverpool will probably win it. However, it all depends on the impact that the new managers have on their teams.

West Ham United v Aston Villa

                West Ham have been relatively busy during the pre-season. Half their signings so far are goalies, meaning they won’t have a direct affect on the formation of the team. Also, the majority of the sold players were out on loan last season anyway.

                So far Villa have bought three players and only sold one. Two of the signings are from teams within the top 4 of the Eredivisie, meaning these players could prove useful, although the difference in standard between the Eredivisie and the Premier League could mean otherwise. Villa had a relatively disappointing 2011/12 season; can new manager Paul Lambert help them improve on their 16^th place finish?

Prediction: Draw.

17:30

Newcastle United v Tottenham Hotspur

                Newcastle and Spurs had only one place and 4 points between them at the end of last season. So far the Magpies have signed relatively unknown players, but the good news for Newcastle is that Demba Ba and Yohan Cabaye will remain at the club this season.

                As for Tottenham, Sigurdsson was one of Swansea’s key players last season, meaning he’ll most likely be an important addition to Spurs. The signing of Jan Vertonghen should also prove valuable. The former Ajax captain plays in defence but is relatively versatile, and was even named Dutch Footballer of the Year this year. However, the possible loss of Luka Modric could have quite an impact.

Prediction: Could be a close match, but I reckon Spurs will win.

Sunday 19^th August 2012
13:30

Wigan Athletic v Chelsea

                The highly rated Eden Hazard should help Chelsea a lot, although the departure of Didier Drogba could have a negative effect on the team. Wigan have done very little so far; only one signing has been made, with three players being sold. In all honestly, it still baffles me that Wigan have managed to stay in the Premier League since 2005.

Prediction: Chelsea to win.

16:00

Manchester City v Southampton

                The reigning champions versus a newly promoted side: there’s the slight feeling that this could be an easy win for Man City. So far the club are yet to make a signing, and the two players that have been sold were both out on loan last season. Southampton haven’t made many signings either, with only striker Jay Rodriguez being bought into the club, who scored 21 goals for Burnley last season.

Prediction: Man City to win.

Monday 20^th August 2012
20:00

Everton v Manchester United

                Everton have made very few changes this season, with only one signing and two players being sold (both of whom were out on loan last season). United have signed three players: Shinji Kagawa, and the youngsters Nick Powell and Sean Goss. All should be able to strengthen United’s midfield.

Prediction: Man U will probably pull it out of the bag, just about.

Promotion and Relegation Systems

Rather naively, I used to think that all league systems were the same as the English system: Bottom 3 teams of the Premier League relegated, top 2 of the Championship promoted, play offs between the next 4 teams in the Championship to determine who gets the 3^rd place in the Premier League.

I’d never really paid close attention to other leagues, therefore just assumed that all systems were the same, but with varying amounts of clubs being promoted/relegated (e.g. only 1 or 2 teams being relegated if it was a relatively small league). This was until I began looking at the Eredivisie.

I was looking into moving to Amsterdam, which led to reading about Ajax Amsterdam, and then about the Dutch football leagues as a whole. I was surprised to find out that the system was quite different!

So, here are the promotion/relegation systems of some of the top ranked leagues in the world, including who was promoted and relegated at the end of the 2011/12 season:

England – Premier League/Championship

The bottom 3 teams of the Premier League are relegated to the Championship (Wolverhampton Wanderers, Blackburn Rovers, Bolton Wanderers).

The top 2 teams of the Championship gain automatic promotion to the Premier League (Reading and Southampton).

Teams with positions 3 to 6 then went to play offs. Teams in the 3rd and 6^th position play two legs (West Ham United v Cardiff City), as do the teams in 4^th and 5^th (Birmingham City v Blackpool). The winners (West Ham v Blackpool) then play one another to decide who gains the last Premier League place (West Ham).

N.B. The amount of teams that are promoted/relegated are different for lower leagues, but the play-off system is the same. 

Spain – La Liga (Primera División)/Segunda División

Spain uses roughly the same system as England. Last season, Racing Santander, Sporting de Gijón and Villarreal were relegated to the Segunda División. Deportivo La Coruña and Celta de Vigo gained automatic promotion to La Liga, and play-offs were played between Valladolid, Alcorcón, Hércules and Córdoba, with Valladolid gaining promotion. Unlike in England, the play-off final has two legs.

Germany – Bundesliga (Fuβball Bundesliga)/2. Bundesliga

The Bundesliga uses a different system to England and Spain.

The bottom two teams of the Bundesliga (FC Kaiserslautern, FC Köln) are automatically relegated.

The top two teams of the 2. Bundesliga (SpVgg Greuther Fürth, Eintracht Frankfurt) are automatically promoted.

The 16^th team from the Bundesliga (Hertha BSC) and the 3^rd team in the 2. Bundesliga (Fortuna Düsseldorf) then compete in a play-off. Two legs are played between the teams. If the team in the Bundesliga wins, they stay there, and the other team is not promoted. If the team from the 2. Bundesliga wins, then they are promoted, and the team from the Bundesliga relegated.

Fortuna Düsseldorf won 4-3 on aggregate, therefore they were promoted and Hertha BSC were relegated.

Italy – Serie A/SerieB

Italy uses the same system as Spain. Last season, Cesena, Novara and Lecce were relegated to Serie B, and Pescara and Torino gained automatic promotion to Serie A. There were play-offs between Sadduolo, Verona, Varese and Sampdoria, with Sampdoria gaining promotion.

Round 1

Round 2

N.B. When being relegated from Serie B, a play-off system is used

Portugal – Primeira Liga/Liga de Honra (aka Liga Orangina)

The Portuguese league uses a simpler system. The bottom two teams of the Primeira Liga (Feirense, União de Leiria) are relegated to the Liga de Honra, and the top two teams of Liga de Honra (Estoril-Praia, Moreirense) are promoted.

France – Ligue 1/Ligue 2

The French system is similar to the Portuguese one, but with 3 teams being promoted/relegated. Auxerre, Dijon and Caen were relegated, and Bastia, Reims and Troyes were promoted.

Netherlands – Eredivisie/Eerste Divisie

Promotion and relegation between the Dutch leagues is similar to the German system, although slightly more complicated.

The team at the bottom of the Eredivisie (Excelsior) gets automatic relegation. The teams in 16^th and 17^th place (VVV-Venlo, De Graafschap) then enter the relegation play-offs.

The champion of the Eerste Divisie (Zwolle) gain automatic promotion.

The teams from positions 6 to 9 in the Eerste Divisie play in the first round of the play-offs. The 6^th and 9^th teams (Den Bosch, Go Ahead Eagles) play each other and the 7^th and 8^th (Cambuur, MVV) play each other, the games being two legs. The winners of these games (Den Bosch, Cambuur) then go through to round 2 of the play-offs.

Round 1

The second round is played between teams in the Eredivisie and the Eerste Divisie. The teams in positions 2 to 5 in the Eerste Divisie play each other. The 2^nd and 5^th teams (Sparta Rotterdam, Willem II) play each other, as do the teams in 3^rd and 4^th position (Eindhoven, Helmond Sport). The teams that qualified from the first round then play teams from the Eredivisie. The team in 17^th place (De Graafschap) plays the team that won the 6^th v 9^th position game (Den Bosch), and the team in 16^th place (VVV-Venlo) plays the team that won the 7^th v 8^th position game (Cambuur). All games are played with two legs.

Round 2

The third round has 4 games. The winner of the game that involved the 17^th place Eredivisie team (Den Bosch) plays the winner of the 2^nd v 5^th position game (Willem II). The winner of the game that involved the 16^th place Eredivisie team (VVV-Venlo) plays the team that won the 3^rd v 4^th position game (Helmond Sport).

Round 3

In the 2011/12 season, the eventual winners of the play-offs were Willem II and VVV-Venlo. This means that VVV-Venlo retained their place in the Eredivisie, while De Graafschap were relegated, with Willem II gaining promotion and taking their place. 

RVP will not renew Arsenal contract

With the recent announcement that the Gunners’ captain will not be renewing his contract, Arsenal fans have gone wild. The hate towards van Persie from some Arsenal fans seems to have, from what I can see, gone off the scale. This video is a good example:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zKksMZdJdgY&feature=plcp

But do they have the right to be so angry? Van Persie has been with Arsenal for eight years now and, although persisted by injury problems early on, he has honed his skills and had a brilliant 2011/12 season, scoring 30 goals and winning the Premier League Golden Boot. Fans are complaining that RVP has had one good season and already wants to move, and how he is now a ‘great betrayer’ like Samir Nasri. But naturally, it should be expected that other teams will be interested in van Persie.

Following a meeting with Arsene Wenger and club chief executive Ivan Gazidis, RVP stated “unfortunately in this meeting it has again become clear to me that we in many aspects disagree on the way Arsenal FC should move forward”. Fair enough. He also wants to win trophies, something which the team hasn’t done much of in recent years. Although the team has regularly qualified for the Champions League, the club hasn’t won any silverware since 2005.

Whatever anyone says, a definite positive to RVP’s possible move away from Arsenal is the amount of jokes coming from it:

Germany 2012 - Overhyped?

In this year’s Euro tournament, Germany were one of the favourites for the win. Journalists and pundits alike commented on Germany’s players and tactics, making them out to be some sort of ultimate team. Many thought Die Mannschaft would make it through to the end, possibly even destroying the Spanish team, also predicted to make it to the final (and, of course, did).

In the words of Public Enemy and Alex Turner, don’t believe the hype. After watching Germany in the group stages, although, admittedly, they were good and won all their games, they were nowhere near this “superman” status that pundits were giving them.

Germany's Euro 2012 Group B results

Although I was pretty sure that Germany would get through the group stages (even though I wanted Denmark and Holland to win Group B), I was cynical of the German team being branded as an unstoppable force. Just by looking at the results, it shows that Germany weren’t massively above the other teams in their group. In all their group games, they only won by a one-goal margin. And although Mario Gómez was doing well, even in the running for the Euro Golden Boot, in my opinion midfielder Mesut Özil’s performances were also slightly overhyped. 

Pundit Alan Shearer even said something along the lines of (and don’t quote me here) “perhaps it’s best England lost to Italy, Germany would have beaten and embarrassed us in the semi-finals”. Really? Although England were relatively sloppy against Italy after the first half, they still maintained a clean sheet, losing on penalties instead (which was expected really due to England’s bad record with penalty shootouts). The Italian side, who could not score against England, then won 2-1 against Germany, with Germany’s only goal being from a penalty. I’m not saying that England are a better team than Germany, but surely England would have been in with a chance of beating them.

From what I saw, the only game where Germany massively overpowered the opposition was the Germany v Greece quarterfinal, which was likely anyway. And even the Greeks managed an equaliser in the 55^th minute, making the score 1-1, and then scored another goal from a penalty in the 89^th minute.

Essentially, Germany were overhyped. They were bigged up so much that everyone believed they could make it all the way to the final. Don’t get me wrong, they are a good team, but personally I don’t think there should have been any certainty that Germany could get to the final.